Think it’s surprising? think again

came across this in a book..heh..gave a detailed example of something that happened to him when he was young that made him felt surprised at the coincidence..hee.

so as the story goes, he went to Orlando to visit Disney World with his family. They had been there for 2 days walking around and taking rides before he saw his Dad’s cousin and his family who lived in Connecticut. Both families did not have any idea that the other family was in Orlando. They were all stunned by the coincidence.

so how surprised should they have been? there were about 230million people in the US at that time. So probability that any one person chosen at random at Disney World would be his dad’s cousin was something like 1 in 230million, unimaginably low. However, over the course of 2 days there, they had passed many different strangers waiting in line for many different rides and treats. In total there must have been at least 2000people(a conservative measure) that they saw close enough to recognize, any one of whom could have been his dad’s cousin. This increases the probability by a factor of 2000, to 1 in 115000

but he wasnt the only person they might have run into. it could have been other relatives, friends or work colleagues, classmates or neighbours. there must have been at least 500people whom they could have run into who would have surprised them as much as his dad’s cousin did. this increases the probability by another factor of 500, to 1 in 230.

Of course, 1 in 230 is still less than half of 1 percent. Therefore, on most trips to Disney World, you probably wont run into anyone that you know. But still, over a lifetime of travelling and visting and exploring, you are bound to run into people unexpectedly, now and then. It really isnt so surprising after all.

Taken from :struck by lightning-Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

wow..no wonder i meet people i know so often. the example used was US with a population of 230million. Now, as compared to Singapore’s 4 million population..chances are so much higher here in this small little island country that i live in..hehe

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