aish..just came back from Cambodia yesterday..ok..2 days ago technically..heh..but haven had the time nor the will to go blog about it..got alot of things to say about cambodia actually..haha..but the thought of typing long is abit sian..keke..and im so busy!!! bahh..uni orientation camp starts on mon..saddd =X ends on fri..and the following week and sch starts!! OMG! it’s like the initial acceleration of a roller coaster!! *Poof* and your off flying! sigh sigh shall blog again soon..tadaa~

well..now im trying to wrap up packing..let’s see..

tops checked, bottoms checked, undergarment checked, medication checked, toiletries checked, small bag checked, sneakers checked. Is that all? for 10 days? like not much..but my bag’s full..and i hope i din missed out anything..oh! money and pouch checked! Spectacles checked.

Camera, Sunglasses, money, passport checked and put aside

things to do: extra sets of batteries for camera..important! oh..and thumbdrive.

so as the story goes, he went to Orlando to visit Disney World with his family. They had been there for 2 days walking around and taking rides before he saw his Dad’s cousin and his family who lived in Connecticut. Both families did not have any idea that the other family was in Orlando. They were all stunned by the coincidence.

so how surprised should they have been? there were about 230million people in the US at that time. So probability that any one person chosen at random at Disney World would be his dad’s cousin was something like 1 in 230million, unimaginably low. However, over the course of 2 days there, they had passed many different strangers waiting in line for many different rides and treats. In total there must have been at least 2000people(a conservative measure) that they saw close enough to recognize, any one of whom could have been his dad’s cousin. This increases the probability by a factor of 2000, to 1 in 115000

but he wasnt the only person they might have run into. it could have been other relatives, friends or work colleagues, classmates or neighbours. there must have been at least 500people whom they could have run into who would have surprised them as much as his dad’s cousin did. this increases the probability by another factor of 500, to 1 in 230.

Of course, 1 in 230 is still less than half of 1 percent. Therefore, on most trips to Disney World, you probably wont run into anyone that you know. But still, over a lifetime of travelling and visting and exploring, you are bound to run into people unexpectedly, now and then. It really isnt so surprising after all.

Taken from :struck by lightning-Jeffrey S. Rosenthal

wow..no wonder i meet people i know so often. the example used was US with a population of 230million. Now, as compared to Singapore’s 4 million population..chances are so much higher here in this small little island country that i live in..hehe

went to my sis house in the morn with my mum..went to get the backpack i need for my cambodia trip. Just nice she has one that she got a few years back when she went nepal..heh..lucky lucky..and tok to me abit about cambodia lahh..and after that i was rather afraid of eating there already..=___= say till like the food there really poisonous like that..HAHA!

Met my pri sch frens after that to watch a movie..was choosing between alot of movies..cos i really haven been going to the cinemas lately..haha..and in e end we settled on Red Cliff! it was a 2 and a half hour show..bahhh..very draggy!!! but not bad lahh..the graphics..and the story plot itself is nice although like yah..as i mentioned..abit draggy in certain parts..heh..but it’s not a waste of money to watch it defintely..heh

and after all that i met my JC classmates for ah hock’s birthday party at downtown east..HAHAHA..we got our present so last min!!! just went to body shop and grabbed a gift pack..keke..but it’s really nice lah! i have this feeling to keep it for myself..=X but yea..it was nicely done and they wrapped up the giftbox..heh..so yea off we went in weiyan’s car to downtown east..joined in the bbq and had some food and drinks and chit-chat..then normal procedure..cut cake..take pictures..eat cake..chit-chat..then go home..HAHAHAH! and thanks weiyan for sending us back home to our doorstep!!! heh heh heh

• you are planning a trip to a foreign country, but you are put off by reports of terrorst activities there. Should you go anyway? A simple understanding of probabilities will allow you to assess the risk of terrorism on your trip, and to decide whether the probabilities are high enough to affect your plans.
• You need a secret code to conduct a secure financial transaction over the Internet. If you just make up a code, an enemy agent might anticipate your psychology, guess the code, and obtain secret information. On the other hand, if u use randomness to generate your code, you can virtually guarantee security against even the cleverest enemy. modern computers use randomness in this way all the time.
• You are involved in a battle of wits with a clever opponent and want to avoid being outsmarted. You can use randomness to create a Nash equilibrium strategy in which your opponent can do no better than guess.
• The local police chief and politicians all insist that crime is out of control and that more money is needed for law enforcement. you can use linear regression to decide for yourself whether or not crime is really increasing.
• You are considering asking out that cute accountant in the business office, but you are worried that she will reject your advance or perhaps even complain about it. Utility theory allows you to quantify your feelings about your wants and fears, and to compute whether or not they justify making that phone call.
• you doctor informs you that you must take a certain drug, which is shown to be effective by the latest medicinal study. By considering the study’s biases and p-value, you can determine for yourself whether or not to accept its conclusions.
• A rival scoffs that you are more likely to be struck by lightning than to succeed in your business venture. A simple check of the numbers will reveal just how unlikely lightning deaths really are and put your rival’s comments into context.
• You are annoyed by all the spam e-mail you receive, and you wish to find a way to block it. Probability theory helps computers to separate spam from genuine messages, sparing you the burden of a jammed mailbox.
• In one day, you see three different people who have all dyed their hair green. Is this a new and popular fashion trend? Random events tend to occur in bunches due to Poisson clumping; many apparently striking coincidences or trends are the result of pure chances, and are of no meaning or consequence.
• A friend tries to stump you with “Monty Hall problem”: which of three doors is most likely to have a car behind it, if you already know that Door #3 is empty? the theory of conditional probability allows you to compute all the odds and make the right choice.
• you write a fantastic song, but you worry that perhaps someone else may have already written the exact same song. Probability theory provides a useful perspective on uniqueness and practically guarantees that your song is brand new.
• You wonder how scientists and engineers compute all the complicated quantities required to build bridges, conduct medical studies, and design nuclear reactors. Monte Carlo sampling uses randomness on high-speed computers to compute many such quantities.
• you  need to decide whether to call a poker bet or how many houses to buy in monopoly. Probability theory provides many insights into strategies fro games of chance, and using it allows you to win more often in the long run.

From [Struck by lightning-Jeffrey S. Rosenthal]

but yeah..this is the list for the most popular names since 1950s

Most popular boy/girl baby names in 1950:

1. James / Linda
2. Robert / Mary
3. John / Patricia
4. Michael / Barbara
5. David / Susan
6. William / Nancy
7. Richard / Deborah
8. Thomas / Sandra
9. Charles / Carol
10. Gary / Kathleen

Here’s the list from last year:

1. Jacob / Emily
2. Michael / Isabella
3. Ethan / Emma
4. Joshua / Ava
5. Daniel / Madison
6. Christopher / Sophia
7. Anthony / Olivia
8. William / Abigail
9. Matthew / Hannah
10. Andrew / Elizabeth

Cheerz~

“Beams of atomic radiation, instead of saws, cut lumber [in 1999]“
- Victor Cohn, 1999 Our Hopeful Future, 1954.